In a significant update, NASA has announced that the probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 striking Earth has dropped once again, now standing at 0.28%. This marks a considerable reduction from the previously estimated 3.1% chance released earlier in the week, which had been the highest recorded risk for an asteroid of this size. The space rock, measuring between 130 and 300 feet in width, continues to be closely monitored by planetary defense teams as it moves through space.
NASA’s Latest Observations
The latest calculations follow overnight observations by the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS), which detected a further decline in the likelihood of impact. The figures, updated on Thursday, show a continued downward trend after initial adjustments on Wednesday had reduced the probability to 1.5%.
Despite the reassurance of lowered impact odds for Earth, NASA reported an increased probability of the asteroid colliding with the Moon, now at 1%. While still a relatively low chance, scientists are paying close attention to this development.
Tracking the Asteroid
Asteroid 2024 YR4 will remain visible from Earth through April, providing astronomers with valuable opportunities to gather more data using ground-based telescopes. Although it will not be observable again until June 2028, NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope is set to analyze the asteroid in March, offering additional insights into its composition and behavior.
Currently, among the 37,000 known large near-Earth objects (NEOs), 2024 YR4 is the only one with any measurable probability of impacting Earth shortly. First detected in late 2024, it was officially reported to the Minor Planet Center on December 27, 2024. As a result of its trajectory, the asteroid gained prominence on NASA’s Sentry Impact Risk Table, a system that tracks space objects with any potential risk to Earth.
The Torino Impact Hazard Scale, a classification system used by astronomers to assess the threat level of near-Earth objects, has assigned 2024 YR4 a rating of 3 out of 10. While this means it is being closely monitored, experts do not currently consider it a significant threat.
Potential Impact and Consequences
If 2024 YR4 were to collide with Earth, its effects could be devastating, particularly if it struck a densely populated area. Due to its size, the asteroid has been referred to as a “city killer” by scientists. Experts estimate that an impact could create a powerful explosion in the atmosphere or even form an impact crater, depending on where it lands.
“If you put it over Paris, London, or New York, you wipe out the whole city and some surrounding areas,” explained Bruce Betts, chief scientist at The Planetary Society.
Although not on the scale of a mass extinction event, an impact could still result in significant casualties, property damage, and environmental disruption. The International Asteroid Warning Network has mapped out potential impact locations, with most being in remote or oceanic regions such as the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, parts of Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia. However, some predictions do include densely populated areas, making continued observation critical.
NASA’s Monitoring and Future Preparedness
NASA and other space agencies worldwide continue to refine asteroid tracking techniques and planetary defense strategies. The ongoing study of 2024 YR4 provides scientists with an opportunity to enhance their understanding of asteroid trajectories and improve response measures in case of a future high-risk impact scenario.
Thanks to advancements in observational technology, astronomers are now better equipped to identify potential threats earlier and calculate their projected paths with increased precision. While the latest figures significantly reduce the likelihood of an impact, NASA assures the public that monitoring efforts will remain a top priority.
For now, experts advise that there is no cause for alarm. The probability of 2024 YR4 hitting Earth remains extremely low, and with continuous tracking and scientific improvements, researchers are confident in their ability to predict and mitigate any future asteroid threats.
